François Bayrou has been appointed as the new Prime Minister of France, the fourth of 2024. Bayrou is the leader of the Democratic Movement Party, part of President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble Alliance. His appointment, following a collapse of the previous administration, could bring new stability to French politics, or could soon lead to another government collapse.
On Wednesday 4 December, the government led by Michel Barnier was defeated in a vote of no confidence, making him the shortest serving Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic. Barnier had been governing without a majority since he was appointed Prime Minister by Macron on 5 September 2024.
This summer’s snap election resulted in a hung parliament. The New Popular Front (NPF), a coalition of parties on the left wing of the political spectrum, gained the most seats, 193 out of the total 577 seats, which is well under the number necessary for a majority. The centrist Ensemble alliance, which includes the Renaissance Party of Macron and Barnier’s predecessor Gabriel Attal, won 166 seats, the far right National Rally (RN) ended up with 142, and the center right Republicans had 47.
The results of the election gave no clear path for the formation of a new government. In September, after asking Attal to stay in post for the duration of the Paris Olympics, Macron appointed Republican Michel Barnier to the post of Prime Minister, governing with the support of the Republicans and Ensemble, but even then still supported by a minority of the National Assembly.
The NFP, who had won a plurality of seats, expressed outrage that they were not approached and given the opportunity to form a government. They had proposed relatively unknown civil servant Lucy Castets as a potential PM, and, having been denied their pick, threatened to enact a vote of no confidence in the new government.
RN, on the other hand, initially took the approach of tacitly supporting the government in return for concessions, especially on social security. When, in October, the NFP scheduled a vote of no confidence, they refused to vote against the government, allowing it to remain in place.
Because it did not have the support of the majority of the National Assembly, Barnier’s government had to use a constitutional measure called Article 49.3 to pass laws, including a social security financing bill, without the consent of the Assembly. This has, predictably, caused controversy, as it is seen as being antidemocratic.
The government had proposed a budget, which aimed to eliminate France’s deficit and debt. It included €60 billion in tax rises and spending cuts. These severe austerity measures are opposed by both the NPF and RN. In an effort to temper opposition to the budget, it included several major concessions to RN demands, including maintaining reimbursements for prescriptions, and not introducing a tax on electricity.
As a result of opposition to the budget, and to not being able to vote on the social security bill, the NFP proposed a Motion of No Confidence in the government. The RN decided to support this, and so it passed with 331 votes. As such on Thursday 25 November, Barnier tendered his resignation to Macron, remaining in place until a successor had been chosen.
Unlike if a UK government was defeated in a confidence vote, this vote did not trigger a general election.It would be unconstitutional to hold another set of National Assembly elections until at least July, a year after the last set, which means that Macron had to attempt to select a Prime Minister who can command the support of the current Assembly. The only way elections could have occurred is if Macron had resigned as President, which would have triggered both presidential and legislative elections. There had been calls for this, but Macron rejected them, intending to stay on until the end of his term in 2027.
The appointment of Bayrou, a centrist, is in many ways a repeat of the appointment of Barnier in September. Whilst the two are not completely politically aligned, both governments will be supported by the same political factions and face the same opposition. There had been speculation that Macron might appoint a member of the Socialist Party, the most moderate part of the NFP, or a non-partisan technocrat, in an effort to appeal to a different political coalition, however he clearly has not chosen this path. The new government will still be vulnerable to no-confidence votes; France Unbowed, the far left element of the NFP, have said that they will call such a vote. The RN have said that they will not support a vote, an echo of their sentiment towards Barnier’s government in October. This could easily change.
It is unclear what the future holds for France. The events of the past months are essentially unprecedented in their modern political history, with only one prior government defeated in a confidence vote, and that was in 1962. These events are only the latest in a succession of upsets to France’s political status quo, and it remains to be seen what will happen next.