14 Years of Tory rule set to end in historic defeat, but does Starmer’s reformed Labour party truly offer tangible change?
The last 14 years of Tory government, particularly since 2016,feels like a political satire that has long lost its comedic effect. Cameron’s Brexit referendum, May’s Brexit debacle, Johnson’s disastrous pandemic management, Truss’ cataclysmic economic policy, and Sunak’s seeming inability to do anything. With a possible historic Labour landslide reminiscent of 1997, the country seems ready to finally leave this comedy behind.
Latest polling averages calculated by the BBC place Labour on 41%, with the Tories on just 21%. Recent YouGov MRP polling projects 425 seats for Labour, with the Tories collapsing to 108 seats. These forecasts would amount to the worst Conservative general election performance in their political history.
The Tories face challenges from Reform, currently polling around 14%. Exploiting the government's perceived post-Brexit failures on immigration and ‘culture war’ issues, and emboldened by Farage’s recent announcement of his candidacy in Clacton, the party represents a threat to the electoral chances of the Tories. Apart from Farage in Clacton, Reform will struggle to win many seats under the FPTP electoral system. Their true electoral capabilities lie in their ability to win votes from the Tories, allowing Labour to capitalise in many marginals by splitting the vote.
As a political strategy to gain Tory seats, Starmer has notably shifted the Labour Party to the centre. Many in Corbyn’s faction of Labour, for their part, have been subject to Starmer’s systematic purge. Political morals aside, electorally speaking, Starmer’s political strategy will enable Labour to capitalise at the polls on July 4th. Labour look set for a landslide, largely through winning back numerous seats across the ‘Red Wall’, broken by the Tories in 2019.
The Liberal Democrats pose another source of electoral attack against the Tories in the ‘Blue Wall’ in the south. They could take long-held Tory seats in affluent constituencies, such as Henley and Thame, held by the Tories since 1910. Sunak’s decision to visit this constituency at the start of the campaign is indicative of the threat posed by the Liberal democrats in these Tory heartlands. Meanwhile, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt could fail to win the newly created constituency of Godalming and Ash against the challenge from the Liberal democrats. This electoral arithmetic further extends the possibility of a Labour majority.
To claim this majority, Labour must also win seats from the SNP is Scotland. With the SNP recently in perpetual political calamity, Starmer seeks to regain Labour’s Scottish heartlands in urban areas in central Scotland around Glasgow and Edinburgh. The quantity of seats won from the SNP will greatly influence the magnitude of a Labour majority. Meanwhile, the other battle ground in Scotland exists between the Tories and the SNP in rural Scottish constituencies. New SNP leader John Swinney will hope that his party’s political relevance will be saved by the Tories’ own unpopularity. Current YouGov MRP polling places the SNP on 20 seats, losing 28 seats.
The Conservative government, evidently, is burning all around us, but out of the ashes are we not witnessing the continuation of a right-wing government in Westminster? Labour have, under Starmer’s leadership, provided uninspiring tax and spend politics, as part of an attempt to distance the party from Corbynism, Labour seem to provide little hope for those suffering in the current economic climate. They are equally weak in condemnation of the present genocidal atrocities being committed by the Israeli government in Gaza, while notably shifting right on a range of social issues, such as trans rights. Starmer’s rejection of the politics of his predecessor leaves political space to the left.
Enter the Greens. While not particularly left economically, nor attached to traditional working-class political support, the Greens have presented a progressive stance to the left on Labour on many issues. As well as holding Brighton Pavilion, the Greens seek to beat Labour to Bristol East, as constancy typical of liberally progressive younger voters, where Green co-leader Carla Denyer is looking to unseat Labour front-bencher Thangam Debbonaire.
This space on the Left is also being filled by Galloway’s Workers Party, fielding candidates across the country, particularly in urban multicultural constituencies. They provide economic policy to the left of Labour, while presenting a strong stance in support of Gaza. The party gained support in areas with significant Muslim populations, as was seen with Galloway's victory in February’s Rochdale by-election, which he is defending in July. The Workers Party appears to couple these positions with some fairly unpalatable stances on social issues, particularly those affecting the LGBT community.
Elsewhere, there are interesting developments in cooperation between left-wing independent candidates and minor left-wing parties, supported by a loose umbrella group of independent left-wing candidates known as the Collective. These loose electoral alliances could evolve into a future political party. The most prominent endorsement of the Collective is Corbyn’s defence of Islington North against Labour. Corbyn lost the Labour whip back in 2020, and was expelled from the party the same morning he announced his independent candidacy in May.
The Conservatives look dead and buried, but their abilities for political revival long-term cannot be underestimated. They may come back as a more socially reactionary, more right-wing party. Labour, meanwhile, look destined for a historic win in July, but the commitment of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves to right-wing social and economic policy will perpetuate the social inequalities that Reform and the far-right will ultimately exploit.
The incoming Starmer government could be subjected to a political solidification to its left, should the post-Corbynite British left get its act together to provide political unification, consistency and momentum. Against these political headaches, Labour’s political strategy may have won them power, but how its longevity is not assured.