Scottish Referendum: One Month to Go

gives an overview of recent developments in Scottish sentiments in the midst of the countdown to the Independence Referendum

afrc.sw.7.8.14

afrc.sw.7.8.14

It’s exactly twenty-seven days until the Scottish people will cast their vote and determine whether or not Scotland will become an independent country.

Though a referendum in name, the UK Government has made it clear that should the ‘Yes’ campaign win the vote, then following negotiation of the precise terms, Scottish independence will indeed transpire.

An expected variety of questions has come about since the referendum was first postulated. ‘What will be the repercussions of Scottish independence?’ ‘What course is best for Scotland and its people?’ ‘What currency would Scotland use should independence take place?’ These are few amongst many conditional to success.

As the wait until the vote slips away, time to ponder on the long-term dissipates leaving minds privy to a persistent, gnawing anticipation in face of an oscillating voting tendency.

A quick glance at different opinion polls and surveys generates a tendency towards a ‘No’ to independence. What Scotland Thinks a website colleting data regarding the matter has most recently shown 38% are estimated in favour for independence and 51% against -according to a YouGov survey- and 42% and 46% according to a Panelbase survey for ‘Yes Scotland’.

The polls naturally fluctuate but those against independence are consistently higher than those in favour. Moreover, by discounting the response stating that they ‘don’t know’, one can infer that the ‘No’ campaign will be if not clear winners, then perfectly entitle to shock and awe should they lose.

Having said this, there appears to be a trend in increasing support for independence and a decreasing trend in indecision over the matter. With only a month to go it may be too late for independence at current rates. Bookies today gives approximate odds of 1:8 that Scotland will rule against independence whilst odds tend to 9:2 that Scotland will vote in favour of independence.

I would argue that an eventual surge for support for independence would be at a quickened rate thus potentially unveiling true preferences. However,by and large it the pattern already seems to emerge. Given the opinion polls from a wide range of surveys and sources, there appears to be more or less roughly a 10% increase in support for independence in the last six months.

It would be fallacious to argue that this increase would continue for two reasons I can think of.The first, one that Salmond has been keenly aware of, is that Scottish pride may be particularly high. Not only does 2014 mark the septcentennial anniversary of Bannockburn but simultaneously the successful hosting of the Commonwealth Games and the forthcoming hosting of the Ryder Cup.

Salmond, himself, stated that it was a ‘good year to hold the referendum’. A six-month surge in desire for independence could in part be attributable to these events, but just as the UK’s post-2012 Olympics pride transpired, it may not be a lasting feeling.

Secondly, recent changes may be further stimulated by the sheer awareness and mixed presentiments arising from the impending referendum. Not a week goes by that the debate is not salient and whilst views may not necessarily swing, the voter is evidently hard-pressed into opting of a party, in order to secure a steady decline of non-natural, indecisive voters.

Yet, there may still be room for a foreseen swing towards detachment. For now, a rallying “No” does appear to predominate, with advocates believing in the views of the nation remaining pro-sympathetic when the vote comes to pass in a month’s time.

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