Iran pursuing a perilous path

February 22, 2012
Neil Johnston

Tensions in the Middle East soared last week after Iran claimed another advance in their nuclear programme. In a televised ceremony President Ahmadinejad unveiled the country’s first nuclear fuel rods for its research reactor.

Crucially the President claimed Iran had added 3,000 centrifuges to its Natanz facility, tripling Iran’s capability to enrich uranium to 20 per cent, just one step short of weapons material. This prompted an angry response from Israel in a week where Iran was also accused of involvement in terrorist attacks on some of the country’s diplomats.

Benyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, upped the rhetoric claiming: “Iran is undermining the stability of the world.” He also encouraged others to back Israel’s position stating: “Nations of the world must…draw a red line against this Iranian aggression. Aggression like this, if it is not stopped, will spread like a storm.”

Other Western powers were less confrontational and tried to play down Iran’s claimed success, with the US State Department saying the advances were “not terribly new and not terribly impressive”. The British Foreign Office took a similar view, commenting: “Iran has made similar claims before”.

Nonetheless Western powers, including Britain and the US, will be very worried. If the claims are true then Iran is advancing fast. Furthermore, with every advance Iran are continuing to defy the UN. Sanctions may be crippling the Iranian economy but the regime is still pressing on with its programme, prompting questions about what else can be done and making the prospect of military action more likely.

It appears the programme is of so much importance to the regime that they are putting it before the economic suffering of their people. If Iran continues to press on, then some form of military action will unfortunately need to be taken. It is too big a risk to allow this regime to gain nuclear weapons. Any intervention or military action by Western states must, however, be legal and justified. If there is to be action there needs to be concrete evidence of nuclear weapons being produced and consensus among world powers.

This is where a problem may lie. Israel could act on its own if it feels threatened. While they could possibly justify this, it will not do anything to help secure peace in the region. Any action by Israel could provoke angry reactions from not only Iran but other neighbouring Arab states.

Despite the increasing tensions in the region there is still reason to be hopeful that conflict can be avoided. First, Iran surprised the world when on the back of last week’s announcement the country’s chief negotiator wrote to the European Union asking to restart negotiations with six world powers. Whether this is in the interests of achieving peace or just buying time to achieve further nuclear advances remains to be seen.
However the Western powers should resume negotiations, as these can only help to mend relations, and at the same time keep a watchful eye over the country’s nuclear progress.

Currently, resumed negotiations and further sanctions are the way forward. In the long term though, if Iran continues to progress towards nuclear weapons, then further action must be taken and this may have to involve the use of military strength.

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