Hutchings and Ngwena joint favourites

A recent poll exclusive to Nouse has revealed that, despite voting opening at midnight today, the majority of students still remain undecided about their favoured Presidential candidate.

The poll also exclusively revealed that Oliver Hutchings, and incumbent Tim Ngwena, are currently tied as the student favourite, after both gaining 18.5 per cent of the vote.

In a survey of around 300 students, 39.7 per cent claimed that they did not know who they would be voting for, with many unaware of either the candidates’ names or policies.

One first-year student, who preferred to remain unnamed, commented: “So that’s what all the posters are for? I didn’t even realise there were elections going on!”

This has raised questions over whether this year’s candidates are doing enough to target student apathy and awareness across campus, and whether their campaigns are reaching a broad enough range of students, although the University of York has one of the highest rates of Student Union participation across the country.

The survey showed that Roberto Powell is also a popular contender for the position of President, with 12.3 per cent voting in his favour, whilst other candidates such as Matthew Freckleton and David Levene lagged behind with only 5.5 per cent and 3.3 per cent of the vote, respectively.

David Hansen, who has been termed the ‘joke candidate’ of this election, was least popular, with only 2.2 per cent stating him as their favoured choice for YUSU President.

The survey was conducted amongst students circulating Central Hall on Friday and Saturday evening, before the annual RAG event, Fusion. Considering that most campaign posters have been placed around the Central Hall and Vanbrugh Paradise vicinity, Hutchings commented that it is a “damning indictment of campaigning techniques” that so many students remained unaware of this week’s events.

41 comments

  1. 7 Mar ’10 at 3:22 pm

    Professor John Curtice

    David Levene on 3.3%? Ouch!

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  2. That’s ridiculous – Levene would do a much better job than Hutchings.

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  3. How large was the sample of students?

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  4. wouldn’t people attending Fusion generally be more disposed to voting those ‘cool’ candidates, especially with Tim being so involved with it?

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  5. what about hits on those candidate videos?

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  6. Yeah, it’s not necessarily a very accurate survey – the students that were talked to were asked in a specific place at a specific time so the range of students was quite narrow. And with certain candidates having greater links to Fusion, it would push towards their favour. But it’s still an interesting read and shows that votes are massively varied!

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  7. I wonder if it’s a coincidence that Nouse supported Tim in last year’s campaign and that Foy is supporting Hutchings in this year’s.

    There are some very different and very interesting results on the Vision website with a much bigger sample and (importantly) not one that they have selected themselves!

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  8. A poll that was conducted outside of Fusion? That Tim organised last year? Of course it’s going to be in his favour. Get a better survey done, No-use.

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  9. 7 Mar ’10 at 5:38 pm

    a careful observer

    rubbish poll. we all know that nouse is supporting hutchings, you only had to see how he and charllottee were inside each others pocket at the second hustings and that farse of a presidential debate.

    and of course people going to see fusion are going to say tim.

    not impressed at all nouse. bad form, pick up ur ideas.

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  10. Credit to Nouse for doing another opinion poll and last year it was the only poll to predict a Tim victory (even though it massively over predicted the turnout and size of his victory).

    However the polling methodology ensures that it is nothing more than a rough barometer. It would be far more reliable if it first of all surveyed peoples’ intention to vote in the election and then asked who they will vote for.

    As for any current poll or future poll by the Yorker, Vision, URY, etc. They are even worse (multiple votes from 1 person, the sample is biased toward ‘involved/interested’ students) and all got it wrong last year.

    All that aside – it looks like we are heading for a close finish next week and don’t count Levene out yet!

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  11. Indeed. It seemed obvious from reports on here (those live hustings things) that those reporting (Charlotte something and the other girl, Laura?) know who they want to win and are using their power on this website to sway others into joining in their way of thinking.

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  12. This is a really unrepresentative sample of students, and the conclusion drawn from the results is therefore really poor.

    A better headline would be ‘fusion goers support fusion types in YUSU elections’.

    This sort of article should not be allowed.

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  13. 7 Mar ’10 at 6:32 pm

    Craig Bellamy

    Are you sure that is accurate?

    Comment edited by a moderator

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  14. Will the campus ‘power’ couple of Henry James Foy and Anna Claire Younger have enough influence to manipulate the student vote in favour of Hutchings?

    Was interesting to see Foy scribbling all over Hutchings speech before the Presidential hustings.

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  15. Or how about the headline, ‘Nouse tells you who we want to win’

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  16. Hutchings and hustings sound quite similar. Coincidence?

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  17. 7 Mar ’10 at 7:27 pm

    Tony Richards

    David Levene is undoubtably the best candidate this poll is stupid for the following reasons:

    They are sampling on the main campus… less than a third of the vote.

    The are including the undecided in their calculus. The samplers probably approached their mates, who were probably Hutchings and Ngwena supporters considering they are Nouse. And yer, point made earlier, do it on a day when fusion is performing… and ull get the ‘right’ result from a poll conducted on campus.

    Nouse is hardly ICM or YouGov!

    in contrast the random straw poll in York vision predicts a landslide victory for joke candidate ‘hansen’

    http://www.yorkvision.co.uk/

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  18. 7 Mar ’10 at 7:40 pm

    Rony Tichards

    It’s nice to see Tony Richards is in a position to predict the best candidate, lets all just hope he gets RONned.

    Comment edited by a moderator

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  19. 7 Mar ’10 at 7:43 pm

    Politically Neutral

    SHOCK!

    York University Labour Party member Tony Richards endorses former York University Labour Party Chair David Levene as “undoubtedly the best candidate”.

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  20. 7 Mar ’10 at 8:00 pm

    Nolitically Peutral

    SHOCK!

    Hutchings-supporting Nouse survey people outside Ngwena-run event, and endorse Hutchings and Ngwena as favourites

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  21. 7 Mar ’10 at 8:05 pm

    Fusion Queue

    Perhaps fusion goers appreciated that Ngwena, Hutchings and Powell took a more low key approach to bothering the crowd, I saw both Powell and Hutchings in attendance and Ngwena was in the show, however Freckleton and Levene respectively made my queing experience a bore with their insistance on handing me flyers and shouting at me with a megaphone.

    I don’t think anyone is claiming that this is the most scientic poll ever and yes it undoubtedly contains some bias, but I think it’s pretty offensive to claim that they are purposefully spinning the data in favour of their choice candidates. Foy isn’t at the paper anymore and I’m pretty sure Levene is friends with Laura Connor from LabourSoc, I don’t see why everyone is trying to put conspiracy theories behind the poll, just accept it for what it is a slightly biased oppinion poll.

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  22. 7 Mar ’10 at 9:02 pm

    Tony Richards

    Shock Horror

    York University Labour Party member Tony Richards endorses former York University Labour Party Chair David Levene as “undoubtedly the best candidate”.

    Shock Horror
    York University Labour Party member Tony Richards endorses former York University Tory Party Chair, mercilessly described by Nouse as ‘John Major’ for Democracy and Services.

    Guys this Is not partisan. I base my value judgements on my own personal criteria not if the person keeps a red or blue card in his wallet

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  23. Maybe the Fusion queue appreciates candidates not bothering them at all when all they want is to get in and enjoy the show. I know one D&S candidate didn’t… (*cough*Dan Walker*cough*)

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  24. “Foy isn’t at the paper anymore”. If you believe that, you’ll believe anything.

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  25. “The are including the undecided in their calculus”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calculus

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  26. how could someone have seen all the posters and not read any? surely you’d have to be blind and deaf to be ignorant of the fact that there is an election going on.

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  27. 7 Mar ’10 at 11:08 pm

    Here we go again.

    “Was interesting to see Foy scribbling all over Hutchings speech before the Presidential hustings”… shame Hutchings couldn’t read it without making numerous mistakes. The worst speech out of the six candidates. Voters are not stupid. Please stop pretending they are. Nouse. Shocking.

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  28. 7 Mar ’10 at 11:42 pm

    Thoulalallalalala

    I agree with Fusion Queue – I have far too much respect for Nouse to believe that they would intentionally mislead their readers by picking a deliberately biased sample. It is equally unfair to suggest that Henry would expect his former colleagues (and, I expect, current friends) to compromise the integrity of his (former) paper via biased reporting. That wouldn’t make Hutchings, Henry or Nouse look good.

    However, like the Vision poll (which currently sees Hansen winning with 124 votes, Hutchings close behind with 114 and Frecks third with 84 votes), this year’s Nouse poll and The Yorker’s past polls are *all* biased samples.
    The Fusion crowd is, indeed, likely to favour Tim & Hutchings, while online polls attract those who ‘care’ enough about campus politics to bother reader campus media on their computers rather than passively staring at a copy of Vision or Nouse while chewing on a Coronation Chicken baguette in Vanbrugh, waiting their lunch date to turn up (I know I do). This does not make the results uninteresting, however.

    More than anything, the Presidential race will be suspenseful thanks to the transferable voting system. Although Hansen is not a Tom Scott joke candidate, and does not, I think, intend to accept the office if he got elected, the Vision suggests he may not be the first out. Moreover, those voting for Hansen, may, in the spirit of expressing their dissatisfaction with YUSU or petty student politics, put RON second and no one else.
    Judging from the size of their respective facebook group, Hutchings will probably secure the greatest ABSOLUTE number of votes…. But who will those voting Freckleton and Powell put 2nd and 3rd? That should be int-res-ting.

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  29. “Here we go again” I agree my speech was poor, I was going to ad-lib it, I’m generally more comfortable just speaking about issues I’m comfortable with, however the stakes were high so I resorted to a speech. During the reading of said speech the pressure got to me and I fluffed it. I’m glad you noticed. I’m not pretending to be god, I get nervous. Every candidates speech this year was a hollow parody of Tom Langrish’s from last year, if you want to know what I was trying to say watch that, I just pulled off my parody with the least pazzaz.

    If being president meant being a good speech reader, a part actor or a performing monkey, I agree I’d do a terrible job and should be shot. I may have fluffed that speech and got tongue-tied but that doesn’t make me an unqualified candidate, without shamelessly self plugging my policies (click my name above) are detailed and achievable and will supplement the list of problems any candidate will have to deal with this year.

    For all those dissatisfied with my hustings speech I’d encourage you to watch the presidential debate, listen to the URY radio interview, watch my 60 second manifesto or talk to me.

    I know people get heated during elections times, but if people who don’t know me could try and refrain from defamatory comments without justification that’d be lovely. I’m scarcely the most sensitive man in the world, but the allegations levied above are pretty tosh for the most part, I may be good friends with a number of Nouse members, but they scarcely engineered this poll in my favour, it’s just a big queue and an easy way to gather some data with relative speed, surely? It’s up to you to discount potential bias, I don’t think anyone is claiming that this poll is divining the future.

    I can completely appreciate that elections get personal on such a small scale and that people have their preferences, but this is a students union election, not a Hollyoaks special. Can we leave the drama and conspiracy to one side and just see through our preferences instead of bitch loads? I respect the other candidates, they are all my friends and I don’t see why people find it necessary to bray on them like pieces of meat.

    Anyway, check out all the candidates and make sure you do vote on http://www.yusu.org/vote

    p.s. I do realise replying is a faux pas and will result in someone tearing me apart, but it just seemed like it was getting to the point where I wanted to offer my stance on the poll.

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  30. 8 Mar ’10 at 8:51 am

    Just so you know

    I think that the purpose of having included in the closing paragraph where and when the poll was done self-consciously pointed to the fact that it was biased. But this would have been a patronising thing to point out, and Nouse’s reporting is constantly being attacked for being patronising. 300 students is never going to be wholly representative; hence why Nouse also has details of Facebook group numbers on this website too. A variety of different voting niches have to be taken into consideration. Plus, the whole point was that it wasn’t wholly representative; if it were, then the trepidation of voting week would be undermined. The poll more than anything exemplifies student indifference and ignorance; hence Ollie’s quote about it being a “damning indictment of campaigning techniques”…

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  31. Good response there, Hutchings.

    In terms of the polls, though, you only have to look to previous years to know they’re inaccurate. Most polls – and even the exit polls – suggested Langrish last year. Tim was highlighted in the Fusion queue and that was the only time. The year before, two polls predicted Payne and one predicted Nadz – and URY’s was the only one to predict Mad Cap’n Tom Scott. Strangely, he had a show on URY…

    The Fusion queue is a line of hundreds of people who don’t have a significant amount to do but talk to the media. Therefore it’s a perfectly good place to ask people without much effort… Of course it’ll be biased but you can factor that in. Ultimately all of the polls will say different things and now that it’s 10am on Monday, many of the traditional YUSU-ers will have voted and the exit poll will be available to the Returning Officer. The exit poll shows who YUSU Council would have voted in and very little else, to be honest, so there’s no accurate way of telling until the night itself. Whilst I think this poll is pretty poor, there’s not really any accurate way to do it!

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  32. Regardless of polls, it seems that facebook groups are often the most accurate predictors!
    A.

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  33. They weren’t last year.

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  34. I commend Hutchings on his response. I’ve given a couple of speeches in my time and know all too well that they are not a good indicator of a persons ability to perform in a role.

    My real point here is actually to highlight the inadequate nature of any form of polling. Unfortunately none are accurate and all are biased. Well done Nouse for at least trying to get one done that wasn’t online. Sadly it is all too easy for people to delete their browsing history and vote on these online surveys as many times as they please. Furthermore, there is only a certain kind of student who bothers with the student papers online and this is not necessarily representative of the larger voting bother. Predictions are educated guesses, some less than others, and should be regarded as that. You can look at viewing statistics, group memberships and both online and offline polls and only still have a rough idea. As such this story should be perceived as an interest piece, not a fact based one. If anyone can substantiate the claims of newspaper bias and interference go for it, otherwise your here say claims are as bad as those you propose the papers guilty of.

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  35. Whilst Hutchings certainly did a good job as Alcuin chair and enjoys a high profile on campus, it was very fortunate for him to have the B henry’s campaign to mask his weaknesses as a leader of the JCRC. He consistently placed popularity above efficiency and thus many functions and events were not fulfilled because he did not want to push his friends too much. Communication within the JCRC was very bad and therefore the Alcuin committee he ‘led’ was one of the weakest and least enthusiastic in many years. Saying that, his enthusiasm and energy was great, shame he couldn’t be more of a firm leader…

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  36. I think you are all missing the point. Let’s not forget that there are more important issues afoot.

    Cheers.

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  37. 2010, you’ve touched on a common misconception about the role of JCRC chairs and vice-chairs. The clue is in the name; their job is to chair meetings, represent the JCRC, oversee what’s going on… it’s NOT to MANAGE.

    JCRC members are part-time volunteers; the idea that they need a ‘firm’ leader is ridiculous. If the JCRC doesn’t get things done, it’s not because the chair isn’t telling them what to do, it’s the fault of the group as a whole.

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  38. Or just don’t care?

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  39. Woah, more importantly, since when were HJ Foy and AC Younger a couple? Nouse desperately needs a gossip column…

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