Barack Obama is the next President – US Elections Live Blog

07.05

Sue Mendes, lecturer in Political Philosophy at York, had said before the eletion that “it will be a miracle if Obama wins. It would be the closest thing to the American Dream that you will ever get.”

It seems that the American Dream has come true.

That seems a good note on which to end this blog.

To those of you who have been with us from the beginning – well done. Now go and get some sleep. To those who have just woken up and are checking the results now, you missed a genuinely awesome and historic sight. To those who watched this blog and contributed from across the pond – thank you. Your additions were invaluable.

To all who were able to join us to witness the making of history, a milestone in the course of humanity; thank you. It has been a pleasure.

Check back over the next few days for analysis, opinion, and contributions from people who were at Obama’s historic rally in Grant Park, Chicago.

Final totals:

McCain – 159
Obama – 338

Barack Obama – the 44th President of the United States of America. The world waits.

06.38

Peter Campbell:

“Hillary Clinton is going to be gutted. After staying in the primaries as long as she could, she would have aimed to damage Obama sufficient to make her own gains in four years time, as I explained previously.

She will now watch as Obama will take the Presidency, a position which she saw as rightly hers by association, and will fume. By the time that Obama sees out two terms, and then no doubt a swing to the Republicans, maybe for two terms. By that time, she will be 16 years older – and 77. If John McCain can’t win at a sprightly 72, Clinton’s chances of ever becoming the President have faded into nothing.

She has seen her only chance slip away.”

06.28

Camilla Jenkins:

“Throughout the entire campaign, I have supported Obama. However, at 6am, after he has achieved a landslide victory, I find myself wondering whether we (and I include most of America) have made the wrong choice.

Obama and the concept of ‘change’ is fantastic but will they go too far? The Democrats are going to achieve a huge majority in the House, they will be filibuster-proof in the Senate. Gubernatorial and state legislatives will follow suit.

The US political system is based on checks and balances. The Democrats now have a heady amount of control of the Executive and Legislative branches at state and federal level- can we expect them to restrain themselves? And will it lead to the sort of positive change Obama has promised?”

06.25

The scale of the victory is still monumental for all African-Americans who can remember back to the time when the segregation that is now in history books was a reality of life. Tears have been shed, particularly by Jessie Jackson, who himself was a victim of the Bradley Effect 20 years ago. For him, it must be an unimaginable sight and joy.

06.21

Obama said that his campaign was not built in the corridors of Washington, but on the front porches and in the back yeards of America. He talks about the “challenges of tomorrow”, calling them the greatest that have ever faced the generation.

06.15

Peter Young:

“Obama’s charisma is likely to provide hope for US citizens particularly in terms of the economy. Since economic outcomes are largely based on expectation the fact that the American people have backed their leader so substantially does, no doubt, provide us with hope. Expectation acts as a catalyst to economic repair and if Obama can inspire such belief then we can be optimistic about the prospect of providing some solution to our worldwide economic problems.”

06.09

Sorry, I lied when I said that the BBC have ended their coverage. The election results programme has ended, and David Dimbleby can now get some well-earned sleep. The analysis continues on the BBC news channel, as indeed it does here on Nouse.

06.04

Peter Campbell, Deputy Politics Editor, has kept a pretty low profile tonight, possibly because I’ve been typing the blog itself.

“However, I think that the scale of the Obama election campaign, while it worked insofar as it got him elected, it ramped up expectations to an unrealistic height. Anyone who appears in front of an adoring festival-size crowd to make his acceptance speech can only fall short of the expectations that will be created by the magnitude of his stature.”

06.02

This is where we hit the analysis section. Three of us are left in the office. This is going to get opinionated.

05.56

The BBC have ended their coverage of the election night. What a mammoth event it has been – an epic conclusion to an epic election.

We, however, will still stay around, discussing our thoughts following the result, and talking to anyone who is still awake, on either side of the pond.

05.47

A lot of commentators are saying that Obama has made for himself a massive height of expectations. Although he doesn’t take office until January, the problems are already mounting, awaiting his arrival.

05.40

Peter Young is still concerned that he will lose 50p on his bet over Montana, which he bet would vote Republican. Tit.

05.35

Bryn Twente, a McCain supporter from Orange County, California, exressed concern:

“To be perfectly honest, I am slightly frightened at what is going to happen now! I don’t know that that is much of a statement… I’m actually a bit nervous, really!”

05.31

For those of you who are wondering why we are still awake, we are sticking it out until the final state results come in. We are also hoping to hear from those in America at the moment. Unfortunately, they are all quite busy celebrating or mourning, both of which seem to involve alcohol.

05.27

The House results:

Democrats – 230 (+22) Republicans – 143 (-22)

05.25

The BBC has swithed over to Kenya to talk about the reaction there.

Camilla Jenkins:

“I can only care about one country a night.”

05.24

This is unreal. To see such a momentus event, held in front of a crowd that would not look out of place a music festival, is truly humbling.

It’s been said a lot, but history really has been made today, in front of our eyes.

05.10

Obama quotes Lincoln, and addresses those who did not support:

“I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too.”

Then, he talks “to those who would tear the world down: We will defeat you! America’s beacon still burns bright.”

05.08

There it goes. The cry of “yes we can” rings out from crowd who have seen a fantasy become a reality.

“What began 21 months ago in the depths on winter, can not end this Autumn evening.”

05.07

$5.3bn – enough to buy 24,000 houses in America (using the average house price). Is that really a fair price, even for the promise of change?

05.00

As the leader of the nation that needs so desperately to change addresses the watching world, we in the Nouse office join the Western world in toasting the future – may it be…quite good.

04.58

Obama takes the stage in front of 70,000, with unknown numbers watching this; possibly the most iconic moment for political development in our lifetime to date.

04.55

For those interested in the Senate race, there as been a six seat change in favour of the Democrats. Given that only a third of the Senate is up for election, that is a fair amount.

04.53

North Carolina, which has been a Republican stronghold since 1942 is said to be leaning Democrat. This is an indication of the extent of the depth of the reach of Obamamania.

04.52

Kenya has declared a national holiday to celebrate Obama’s victory.

04.47

The pictures of the crowds at the Obama party in Chicago looks like a rock festival awaiting the headline act. This has been a very long-awaited moment. Many hope that it will not be an act, but there are those on both ides of the pond who wait to be convinced.

04.44

Four states remain to be called: Montanta, Indiana, North Carolina, and Missouri. While their results would not have an effect on the outcome of the election, winning Indiana and Missouri would certainly be consolation prizes for McCain.

04.44

Camilla Jenkins:

“Obama’s win should have been the answer to all our worries. Now, it seems like there are more questions then ever.”

04.39

The final result for the popular vote is staggeringly close:

Obama – 51.1% McCain – 47.7%

That is only a 3 million difference.

Considering that this is the year that the Democrats should have walked the election, McCain has given a pheonominally good account of himself.

04.35

It hasn’t seemed real until now. The election has been going on for so long, that it just became another form of entertainment. Now that it’s come, some of the Nouse team are finding it emotional.

This is real. This is history.

Obama will speak to his rally, now victory party, in Chicago at midnight local time, 05.00 here. The atmosphere is going to be pretty Woodstock-esque.

04.27

McCain, speaking in Pheonix, had to calm to crowd before continuing:

“Today, I was a candidate for the highest office for the country I love so much. Tonight, I remain her faithful servant. I hold in my heart nothing but love for this country, whether they supported me or Senator Obama…[Americans] never hide from histroy – we make history. Thank you and God bless America.”

04.22

McCain calls on the people of America to come together and offer their allegience to Obama to make America a better country.

“I am very thankful to all of you. A lost election will never mean more to me than the priviledge of your faithful friendship.”

04.21

Garren Gotthardt, 17, Hudson, Ohio:
“I am not old enough to vote in this election, and am really dissapointed about that because I feel that this because this is such a potentially groundbreaking election that my vote would actually mean something. Could I vote I would vote for Obama because I agree with him on most issues: his plan for getting out of Iraq being the main one”

04.19

The name of Barack Obama brings about boos and jeers from the crowd addressed by John McCain. The historice new President will no doubt face a tough time from those who viamentally did not want to see him in office.

04.17

Peter Young:

“It’s great to see such an overwhelming election win regardless of party. A president with a full backing from his people is in a much better position to solve problems than one in presiding over a more divided nation. One can not help but recognise Obama’s remarkable achievement in winning this election with such overwhelming support.”

04.16

Chris Etheridge, Alcuin College:

“For the neutral viewer, it’s a shame that the election wasn’t closer.”

04.14

Exclusive insight into the reactions of the Nouse Politics team.

From Tom Hobohm, Politics Editor, and Camilla Jenkins, Deputy Politics Editor:

“F*** yeah!”

04.13

If you’re still awake, what do you think of the election results? Please email in, comment, or text.

04.09

As the realities of the situation hit the Obama camp, and they consider heading towards their home states, the moose of Alaska are quaking in fear at the prospects of four more years of slaughter at the hands of a 44 year-old woman. No names mentioned, of course.

04.07

Hannah Greenberg, 21 from Missouri, says:

“This is a great moment for America and for democracy worldwide.”

04.05

Tears in the eyes of the crowd at Grant Park, Chicago. Celebrations will be held long into the night.

Yesterday the world had never seen a black President. Today, history has been made, and we were here to witness it. We are truly fortunate.

04.01

The end of the road for McCain – America’s 44th President will be Barack Obama, the first black President of the United States.

The dream, once proclaimed from the steps of the Washington Memorial by a charismatic black preacher, has now been realised.

03.55

BREAKING NEWS: NOUSE HAS RECEIVED UNCONFIRMED REPORTS THAT MCCAIN IS CONSIDERING CONCEEDING THE ELECTION.

Two McCain top people have told CNN that they see “no path to victory” (from the Wonkette)

03.56

“Americans are now proving their stupidity by electing someone who’ll be worse than Bush, ie Obama. Only Americans would put up two sets of completely incompetent candidate when the world is clearly heading for very turbulent times.a”

Rollo Patrick, 24, London

03.50

10 minutes until polls close in California. Rasmussen puts Obama 27 points ahead in this state. Which is hardly surprising.

03.38

Karen Hughes, the Under Secretary for Public affairs blames economic conditions for McCain’s failure to win the key states. The whole interview is more of a post mortem. Not even the most die hard McCain fans are feigning optimism anymore.

03.33

We’re calling Florida for the Democrats. Obama takes more than 50% of the vote, whilst McCain has just 48% so far. 75% of the vote counted so far.

03.26

Texas is as good as called for McCain, in much the same way as the election is as good as called for Obama.

Maybe California will provide a sting in the tail.

Maybe.

03.24

Maarten Lindtjoern, 19, Texas:

“I voted for Obama, I think I’m the only one down here!”

03.22

Louis Tiemann, 18, Rhode Island:

“It’s not over yet. I’m going out canvassing with my GOP homies”

[GOP = Grand Old Party aka Republicans]

03.16

Controversial reports are emerging – allegedly, Texas is going to vote Republican. Everyone is stunned.

03.13

Aminah Daniels, 18, Arizona:

“I voted for Obama. this is by far the most groundbreaking election in history especially as far as the emergence of the 18-24 age group of voters”

03.12

Dami Tanimowo, James College:

“PaddyPower.com is offering 1-300 on an Obama victory…I’m off to bed.”

03.10

Strong opinions from those living the election at the moment.

Raj Patel, 18, Accron, Ohio:

“F*** Ohio. I voted for McCain and I’m disappointed with the result”

03.04

With the current situation, Obama cannot lose the election. Given that he will win Oregon, Washington State, and California, those will give him over the required 270 ECVs. The question now is by how much Obama will win. If he only wins those three, then McCain will have been said to have given Obama a very good run for his money.

03.00

There are only six states with polls still open. An Obama victory seems likely, but not 100% certain by any means. Iowa has been projected for Obama. Utah has gone to McCain.

Results so far:

McCain – 135 Obama – 207

02.58

McCain has won Mississippi, which now puts him on 130 ECVs.

02.56

Florida is still running very close. If you’re watching this blog from America, we’re really glad you can be with us tonight, please email in your views of what’s happening to [email protected]

We’ve also just heard that the candidates are running on 50% each in Virginia.

02.54

AJ Bremner, 20, a previous intern for the US House of Representatives says:

“Dude, he’s won. There is no way McCain can win!”

02.53

Todd Deutsch, a 21 year old from North Dakota, decided to voice his unique views on what some are terming the most important presidential election in modern history:

“No matter if you’re a Republican, Democrat, or Independent, please vote Jasper Schneider for Insurance Commissioner.”

02.48

Louisiana called for McCain.

Don’t forget that the candidates need 270 ECVs to secure the Presidency.

McCain – 124 Obama – 200

02.53

Earlier today, Nouse polled York students to see what they think.

The results taken today showed that 75% of those interviewed incorrectly predicted a McCain win in Pennsylvania. 63% foresaw the Obama win in Ohio. Overall York University students have predicted an Obama win with 86% of those interviewed favouring his chances. York students still predict Republican wins in Colorado and Missouri.

02.43

At 03.00 polls close in Iowa, Montanta, Utah, and Nevada. Obama is projected to win Minnesota.

Totals:

McCain – 124 Obama – 200

02.39

New Mexico called for Obama. Given the momentum that Obama seems to have, it is amazing that John McCain still has 49% of the popular vote, with Obama on 50%. That detail is from the BBC.

02.34

As it stands, the BBC are projecting the following ECVs:

McCain – 90 Obama – 195

02.29

Camilla Jenkins, one of the two Deputy Politics Editors, has decided to insert her two-penny worth to the debate:

“How is it possible after $5.3 billion that the election appears to be clear-cut? Is anyone really suprised that the Republicans won Tennessee and Obama won New York?”

02.26

While only 70,000 supporters can attend Obama’s rally in Chicago, there are projected to be 1,000,000 supporters outside the venue. Obama the rockstar seems to be electable.

02.25

Obama projected to win Ohio. You might as well go and get some sleep.

McCain – 76 Obama – 195

02.24

Kendra Oates, 22, University of Delaware:

“The Republican party has not done the United States any justice in the past eight years, the bad has heavily outweighed the good. With this latest financial fiasco I have lost all hope for our current leadership, more specifically the commander in chief. Barack Obama is a breath of fresh air and the “Change” that America needs right now. This election season has been very intense and intriguing, I am anxious to see the results. As of right now everything is going the way I had hoped and the finish line is near. I can’t wait to hear the final results and move past this rough patch we have been in for way too long.”

02.22

Anyone know how Ralph Nader’s doing?

02.19

Fox’s Brit Hume: “This is a very hard one for the McCain Camp to swallow tonight because it bet on Pennsylvania as a place where which if it could just steal it, and put it in the blue column, it could hold off the Obama surge in other areas and perhaps afford to lose a few red states. Now that possibility it taken away.”

CNN’s David Gergen: “Victory is almost within the grasp of Barack Obama.”

02.14

Chris Etheridge, from Alcuin, has texted in:

“Looking impossible for the Republicans with key states going against them. Even if they were to claw it back, there is now a majority Democrat vote in the Senate.”

02.11

Kelsey Neels, a student from Washington State, says:

“This really does mark a turning point in our political history as Americans. We’d either have the first woman VP or the first black President. This campaign went rather well all things considered when it came to mud-sligning, partly because I think Americans were afraid of being politically insensitive about the fact that Obama is black. If Obama wins this honestly marks a change in our country from the Reagan era to a whole new world of ‘change’. I don’t know if any of us actually know what this change means for our future.”

02.07

Some more results in. McCain has taken North Dakota, Wyoming, and Georgia. Obama has taken Wisconsin, New York, and Minnesota.

Results so far:

McCain – 76 Obama – 175

01.56

Florida looks very close. With 41% counted, Obama has 51% (2,446,437 votes) to McCain’s 48% (2,300,955). Stay tuned.

01.51

Polls that will close at 02.00: Colorado, New York, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and Wyoming.

If you’ve just joined us, welcome to Nouse’s all-night US Presidential Election blog coverage. We’ve been live since 23.00, and so far the results according to the BBC are:

McCain – 49 Obama – 103

01.47

Peter Young continues expounding on his beliefs:

“No vastly surprising results so far. McCain was always going to struggle to take Pennsylvania and can still win without it. Without Pennsylvania the pressure is still on for the Republicans especially in the run to take Ohio, Virginia, Indiana and Florida.”

Peter also reckons that Florida will go Republican, due to the Western counties that are yet to come in.

01.44

Georgia has been called for McCain, which will be an upset for the Democrats. According to NPR, the popular vote is currently 49.6% each.

Indiana has 40% counted. McCain has 52% to Obama’s 47%. It’s looking pretty safe to call for McCain.

Current standings according to the BBC:

McCain – 49 Obama – 103

01.39

Massachusetts has been projected from Obama with 64%.

01.35

Alexandra Libby, 20 from New York state, says:

“It doesnt matter who wins either way. We are screwed. The only people it really matters to are foreigners because it will tell them to what degree they too will be getting screwed”

01.31

Alabama and Arkansas have both been called for McCain. The results so far:

McCain – 49 Obama – 103

01.27

Is Obama’s momentum unstoppable? McCain’s campaign probably hope that it isn’t. If McCain loses either Florida or Ohio, then we might as well go to bed.

01.26

Brandon Helm, 23 from Wisconsin, says that:

“Sarah Palin is the most incompetent individual to ever make it as close as she may to leader of the free world…and that makes me scared for America…McCains a tool too”

01.23

Queries are being raised about the tardiness of Georgia being called. Georgia, which is normally a safe Republican seat, could possibly go to Obama. One exit poll says that 97% of African Americans in Georgia turned out. By anyone’s standards, that’s big.

01.22

Continuing with the opinions, Laura Connor, the new Deputy News Editor, has said:

“We have to remember who generally votes for McCain and Obama. The youth vote has shown in our statistics to be far more pro-Democratic, with the younger generation being the predominant social group on Facebook, and other, lesser-known, social networking sites across the globe.
Also – younger people seem to retain more idealism, and are often more ardent in their views. This makes them, arguably, far more cyber-expressive.”

Laura thinks that McCain will still win, but desperately hopes that Obama triumphs.

01.19

Politico has said that without Pennsylvania or New Hampshire, both of which have been called for Obama, McCain’s chances of winning become “increasingly exotic”

01.16

With Pennsylvania gone to Obama, it is now no longer essential for Obama to win Florida in order to win the White House.

01.13

McCain is up 57% in Virginia with 22% of the vote counted.

Obama leads with 54% to 46% in Florida, with 23% counted.

Both of those from New York Times.

01.11

Comment from Dami Tanimowo, James College:

“Pennsylvania and New Hampshire have gone to Obama, McCain’s chances are
buried- possibly even if he manages to hold Indiana.”

Please email in any views you have to [email protected]

01.09

CNN gives the breakdown in South Carolina:

53% McCain 33, 432
47% Obama 29, 612

01.05

These are coming in hard and fast. Obama has got Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, and D.C.

McCain has taken Oklahoma and Tennassee.

All these are only projected, but the current totals are:

McCain – 34 Obama – 103

00.59

Pennsylvania and New Hampshire have gone to Obama. 25 ECVs to the Democrats. Current totals:

McCain – 21 Obama – 28

00.58

Jenny Barnhart, 21 from Virginia, says:

“I think the American public recognizes that there’s more to a President than rhetoric and simple popularity. McCain’s experience and proven leadership has been understated in the polls and tonight’s vote will show him to be a tougher opponent than the media has predicted to date.”

00.55

From the New York Times, Virginia looks like it’s heading for McCain with 56% of the vote. Those of us who were laughed down for predicting a McCain win are starting to stand a little taller.

00.53

South Carolina has been called by the BBC for McCain. Results:

McCain – 21 Obama – 3

00.52

01.00 is the big one. Polls close in Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennassee, Alabama, Illinois, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma.

00.47

Indiana looks close, with McCain at 51% to Obama’s 48% with 22% counted. It would be a big win for the Arizona Senator.

00.44

Currently, Obama holds the popular vote so far, but only by 64,000, giving him 51%.

00.41

Several of the members around the BBC table reckon that they could do a better job than Sarah Palin as Vice-President, including the almost-sober Christopher Hitchens.

00.40

Politics is a passionate issue for many celebrity activists in America. Tim Robbins, Shawshank Redemption star, today got so upset that he wasn’t on the register of voters that he created a scene and threatened to call the police. Robbins was offered a provisional ballot and refused. Then he called his lawyer and talked to a judge.

Five hours later, Robbins was permitted to vote – under a judge’s order.

Only in America.

00.38

Grant Park, the scene of Obama’s victory/consolation rally, is already filling up. Tickets for entry, which were distributed free, are now changing hands for $1000s.

00.36

Given the nature of the election, many people are looking carefully at the proportions of Afro-Americans. African-Americans made up 30% of the voters in Georgia. In 2004, they were 25%.

On the other hand, black voters make up 21% of the turnout in Virginia, unchanged from four years ago.

00.33

Fox and CBS have both called West Virginia for McCain.

If that is confirmed, it would put the results as:

McCain – 13 Obama – 3

00.29

Only a few moments to go until polls close in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. MPR are saying that McCain has a slight lead in Indiana and Virginia.

00.27

McCain leads by 54% to 46% in Florida according to CNN.

00.26

McCain has already taken Kentucky. Inevitable? Note that Clinton won Kentucky on the way to his first and second term as President.

00.24

During the night we will also be offering our own humble opinions on the night’s proceedings. Peter Young, the new joint Politics Editor, has taken the first shot:

“As expected McCain has taken Kentucky. His 5% lead over Obama there is down from the massive 20% lead that Bush held over Kerry in 2004. This is not a brilliant result for McCain despite the technical win and is possibly an early warning sign for McCain supporters.”

Peter predicts a Democratic win overall.

00.22

Chris Etheridge, from Alcuin college, has texted in:

“Not a bad start by McCain – ahead in Virginia and Florida. Can he hold onto the lead?”

If you have any comments please, email them into [email protected] or text to 07787 135 210 and please give your name and college. We’ll be putting up all comments we receive throughout the night.

00.18

The Campaign Spot is reporting that Team Obama is worried about New Hampshire and have concentrated their resources into getting every last voter to the polls. This is in a state whose motto is “live free or die”.

00.15

Ricky Gervais tells the BBC that he never found politics interesting until this election. He says that, aside from being intelligent and an elitist, Barack Obama hasn’t put a foot wrong.

00.14

Breakdown of results from Kentucky from CNN:

52% McCain – 96, 598
47% Obama – 87, 397

00.13

Ian Lindblom, 23 from Illinois, talks about the problems of voting early in state where polls have restrictive hours:

“Long lines and poorly trained workers are causing problems throughout the country. I had to wait an hour and fifteen minutes before accessing the polls, and other people around me had to leave to get to work, indicating that they would try to make it back before the polls close here at 7pm. Any voter in line when the polls close is legally entitled to cast his ballot, even if it should take hours for the line to process. Already a lawsuit has been filed in Virginia to extend voting hours in some precincts experience problems.

Poorly trained workers are also an issue; I witnessed well-intentioned poll workers asking every voter for ID, while only those who registered through the mail and have not voted previously are required to present any in Illinois. Other states have different regulations, photo ID, I believe, is only required in Indiana. I also personally witnessed the issuing of provisional ballots to voters whose names were not in the roll, with the poll workers failing to check supplements for late-processing registrations; while these votes should be counted after review, in Illinois fewer than 20% of these ballots are ultimately counted, creating the potential for disenfranchisement.”

00.07

Pretty much any British or European publication you have read recently will be strongly in favour of Obama. He’s a good guy; he believes in women’s rights, in universal health care and supporting the little guy but would he really do that good a job? According to the Washington Post, Representative. John Boehner (the leader of the House Republican Party), called Obama a “chicken” when campaigning for McCain. Obama has campaigned on a message of change but most of the time, on the most controversial votes, Obama has voted “present” rather than taking a position.

00.05

An Associated Press exit poll found six in ten registered voters said that the economy was their primary concern. None of the other top issues – energy, Iraq, terrorism, and health care – was picked by more than one in ten.

00.03

Welcome to Wednesday. If you’ve only just joined us, we’ve been live since 23.00. Two results have just come in, with McCain currently winning. Not entirely sure for how long we will be able to say that during the night, although opinions within the Nouse office are firmly divided about the potential outcome.

00.00

McCain has won Kentucky, with Obama taking Vermont.

McCain – 8 Obama – 3

23.58

It is reported by www.csmonitor.com that the companies Starbucks and Ben and Jerrys are offering free coffee and ice cream to anyone who says they’ve voted in Georgia.

This is despite the fact that it’s illegal to offer money or gifts in return for votes in the USA. To get around this, the companies have extended the offer to everyone, just for being patriotic.

23.56

The National Public Radio states that, of 9% of votes counted in Kentucky, 48% are for Obama and 51% are for McCain. Close, but it would be a massive upset for McCain to lose Kentucky, which was seen as a safe state. Kentucky holds 8 Electoral College Votes (ECVs).

23.55

Only a few minutes until polls close in Virginia, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, and New Hampshire and we get a first indication of how the evening may turn out.

23.53

According the the Wonkette (a liberal DC gossip blog) states that according to early exit polls, 62% of voters said the economy was their biggest concern. This is compared to 2004 when most voters said that “personal values” or similar was their biggest concern. It was estimated that Bush took the 2004 election on moral values.

23.52

National exit poll shows that 90% of voters claim not to take race into account. Given that everyone is talking about the Bradley Effect, we’ll see if that is the case.

23.50

The way that the voting works is called the Electoral College System. Each states has a certain number of Electoral College Votes to cast, set roughly by population size, and the candidate who wins the popular vote in each state wins all of the Electoral College Votes. The candidate who wins 270 Electoral College Votes wins the Presidency. Simple, really.

23.44

Arnie, everyone’s favourite robotic Governor of California, has said that he believes that McCain can win. Certainly not in his state however; California is very safe Democrat territory.

23.43

We’re not expecting to hear any results just yet, we should hear from Indiana and Kuntucky by 00.00, at the same time as the polls close in Virginia, eastern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, and most of New Hampshire.

23.41

Already, both McCain camp and the Republican National Committee are putting out statements about possible voting fraud. According to the Politico.com, the GOP are suggesting that the massive surge in newly registered voters may lead to problems with out-dated voter lists and general lack of allocated resources. You would think they would have thought of that before.

23.39

The BBC has said that officials estimate a 75% turnout in the critical state of Virginia.

23.38

Drudge, a Republican blog, has Obama ahead in Pennsylvania by 15 points. Drudge also has Ohio, Indiana, and Florida too close to call.

23.37

Both candidates are hosting events tonight. Earlier McCain addressed a rally in Colorado, a state that McCain is keen to win but is currently leaning Democrat. He talked about the need to fight for the country and for the future of our chilrden.

Obama is holding a massive rally in Grant Park, Chicago. Whatever the result, Obama will address the crowd, who can get into the event free, from behind bullet-proof panels.

23.22

From CNN’s Joe Von Kanel and Hal Quinley:

“In early exit polling, first-time voters are breaking overwhelmingly for Sen. Barack Obama. 72 percent report say they voted for Obama, compared with 27 percent for McCain. First-time voters compose 10 percent of the total national electorate thus far.”

23.21

During the night we’re hoping to hear from American voters from all over the country. Ian Lindblom is a 23 year old from Illinois who graduated from Harvard with a degree in Government. He says:

“The 2008 Presidential Election has excited people in a way that has never been seen in my lifetime, and one that others speak of as a rebirth of energy in politics not seen since 1968. Everybody seems to have an opinion and be involved, from grocery store clerks to lawyers, doormen and bellboys to CEOs. This fantastic level of energy, however, has created problems with the logistics of voting, with high turnouts expected. Observations to date, from both Early Voting (in which voters could cast their ballots early in some states at some locations to avoid long election-day lines) and early this morning, indicate an overwhelming number of people voting, which ought to be a boon to Democracy; the opposite, however, may be true.”

23.19

It is actually 633 days since Obama announced his election campaign, and 599 since McCain announced his. Months and months of blood, sweat, and tears have gone into campaigning for both candidates, and of course for all of those who also ran in the primaries. For many, tonight is the climax they have been working towards.

23.15

During the night, we’ll be watching three major US blogs: www.Politico.com, www.campaignspot.nationalreview.com, and the Washington Post blog. We’ll keep you updated about what’s happening on the major news networks including the BBC, CNN, and Sky News.

23.13

This has been the most expensive election to date, with a staggering $5.3bn having been spent. In 2004 the cost was $4.2bn.

23.10

The polls opened at 11.00 this morning, and it is estimated that over 135 million Americans will have cast their vote during the day. Don’t forget that 29 million have already voted early across 30 states.

23.00

Good evening, welcome to the Nouse US Presidential Election blog. Thanks for joining us. It’s 23.00 and the polls have closed in Indiana and Kentucky. We’re going to be with you all through the night to see the votes in.

All night we will be talking exclusively to US voters from all across America, from those in rural Texas to people attending Obama’s Chicago rally.

We will also be covering all the major news channels, running a blog-watch, explaining jargon, offering analysis and debate, and taking and posting all your comments, calls, and emails throughout the night.

——————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Join us here tonight as Nouse host a live blog taking you through the night of the US Presidential Election. During the night we will be covering all the major news channels, running a blog-watch, explaining jargon, offering analysis, and talking exclusively to US voters from all across America. Plus, we will be taking and posting all your comments, calls, and emails throughout the night. So whether you’re throwing or attending an election-night party, or just at home watching the votes come in, we’d love for you to join us.

52 comments

  1. CBS are saying that McCain has 60% of the popular vote to Obama’s 38& what does Nouse think they mean by that?

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  2. utopio, whats your source? the cbs site currently has obama leading the popular vote 51-48, so unless there has been a dramatic 15-minute swing since you commented, you’re very much mistaken…

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  3. Come on Joe Bama!

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  4. I hope it’s a successful Obamarama, but i’m really not convinced that he’ll introduce any sort of noticeable change to the hard Realism that is US Foreign Policy.

    I’m not even convinced he can pull out of Iraq like he’s suggested…

    Then again i’m a cynic.

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  5. It’s Maryland. Not Merryland. Also, “hard and fast”? Nice guys. I joke, I’m loving this

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  6. Ohio is the one to watch. If McCain looses this it is all over. It seems to all be falling as predicted

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  7. Dami’s wrong, it doesn’t matter about indiana, Obama’s won it, don’t try and cover your ass!

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  8. Is it just me, or are some of the ones i expected to be very red are looking close to bluish at the mo, e.g.. texas is looking close, florida is blueish (info from BBC, USA today and MSN)

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  9. Allow McCain
    Go Obama
    eeeyyyyyyyyyy!

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  10. Tehers loads of people watching here in derwent jcr

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  11. You’ve not got very good sources, by the looks of things…!!

    I’ve got projections of higher scores though most of the extra points have come from safe Republican places. Various reports have also called Ohio and Virginia for Republicans but that happened before and later were recalled..

    And another point is that the popular vote looks to be about 49.7% to 49.5% at the moment but based on a small percentage of the vote (2-4% of the total vote) it isn’t certain. Those will probably split a little more over the next 4 hours.

    But seriously, look at wider sources. They’re more accurate and quicker at releasing!

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  12. Btw Obama has 83% won this election.

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  13. Just projected combinations of FOX, Sky, CNN, BBC and a couple of more accurate reports…. prediction is minimum 285 but probably about 305ish at the moment. There will be a few swings either way though so we’ll see how that ends up.

    But if it’s right that Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania are all Democrat – and it’s looking very likely – then it’s already all over. Job done, Obama.

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  14. Scratch that … CNN is going a bit OTT on their predictions. Virginia is much closer. Florida should be fairly simple work but New York hasn’t even really been called yet and they think it has. I still think that they’ll probably end up where they’ve been predicted but it’s not as clear-cut as CNN and a couple of Democratic-favouring reports suggest! :P

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  15. I second Simon Schama’s comment from Question Time last week – i hope american’s aren’t just voting to make history. Hopefully they all actually think he’s the best guy for the job, otherwise…..what’s the point?

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  16. Well, they would have made history if they had voted Palin in as the first female VP…

    But they haven’t anyway – none of the states so far have been won by a small amount. It looks like there was a decent swing of Independents (perhaps because of Palin) so that could have hit harder than expected. Or maybe Americans are just getting more intelligent :P

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  17. If Jason Rose knows so much about politics, why isn’t he on the politics team?
    Who are his contacts – Bush?
    Also – never use exclamation marks if you want to be taken seriously.

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  18. Hey, $5.3 billion? Where has the figure come from? Obama spent half a billion and McCain a quarter of a billion.

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  19. Hi Jenny,

    Thanks for you comment. The figure was given by the BBC as the total cost of the election on their running blog during the day.

    Thanks again,

    Peter Campbell
    Deputy Politics Editor

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  20. I am on the politics team. I just didn’t get voted into the Editor or Vice-Editor roles. And I don’t know so much. I’ve just followed 3 consecutive elections and know which websites are reliable and how to accurately draw out results. It’s not difficult if you follow US elections..!

    Though I think I’ve underestimated Obama – he’ll easily break 305 at this rate!

    Also, exclamation marks are perfectly fine for use in English punctuation. Stop trying to belittle me – if you want to belittle what I’ve written, feel free to. But you won’t be able to because what I’ve written is accurate.

    Also I’m feeding about 60 people information so am much happier here than in the Nouse control room :P

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  21. I think it is pritty clear cut now. If all goes as expected and to trad patterns, Obama wins Ohio (which it seems he has), California + the rest of the western seaboard, and the trends continue, for example a blue win in colorado and florida, even if McCain wins all the rest, Obama will take this election with over 300 electoral seats. time for bed i think…

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  22. just to be a bit sad, if you want to fiddle about with the results and see what senarios will produce what, follow this link, and it will let you choose the affiliation of the states.
    http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htm

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  23. Have u ever read George Orwell’s polemical essay ‘Politics and the English Language’?
    Well, I will have you know that split infinitives and the like are unforgivable grammatical errors which distort our views and indoctrinate our opinions through a lack of clarity… which is particularly exacerbated by… ellipsis.
    Nevermind.I am sure your sources are remarkable. Let’s share them.

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  24. We’re looking at 370ish if Obama wins the remaining swing states and democratic safe states… We’re looking at 300ish is he loses all of the swing states. Though a technical (i.e. by definition) landslide isn’t going to happen as he’s probably ending up with a maximum of 50% of the popular vote, it is a landslide by any other definition.

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  25. Well, a safe bet at this time of night is to follow:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7697829.stm
    and
    http://news.sky.com/skynews/Interactive-Graphics/US-Election-Results

    The rest are just to get a clear cut over the others. FOX has their percentages along with the percentage of total voting populace that it was taken from, allowing you to use “maths” to calculate the probabilities of different wins. CNN is actually really bad this year and is not only slow but a bit incorrect, surprisingly! Google news isn’t a bad tool any more. The others I’ll keep to myself, if you don’t mind :P

    But using the FOX and the maths it looks like a 70% or more chance of Obama taking Florida or Virginia separately or, in total, a 50% chance of taking both. If he does so he can afford to lose Califoria and will still win.

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  26. i actually voted for mccain – i’m in new mexico right now. so far it’s not looking great – but there’s still florida and a few more. here’s to hoping

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  27. Iowa, Montanta, Utah, and Nevada

    Iowa – Obama probably
    Montana and the others are looking too close to call based on polls. 4 minutes until they’re called, allegedly!

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  28. Jason, everyone, on the topic of the final score, me and a friend have 311 – 228 for obama.

    If i win, i want a prize.

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  29. oops, that’s 310 – 228, my bad.

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  30. Republicans, we are fucked, I’m afraid. Obamamania has won and we have to live with the consequences.

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  31. If it comes out as that I’ll buy you a drink.

    I reckon he’ll washington, Hawaii, Oregon, Colorado and California. Given that, it’ll be an extra 86 to make 293. I could name the other states that I think will turn to him but I have the feeling that he’ll break 340 if not head higher than that.

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  32. *will win Washington…

    Stupid slow internet :-\

    I’m calling South Dakota for McCain, Nebraska for McCain, Idaho for McCain, North Carolina for Obama. Alaska doesn’t need to be said.

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  33. Great job. Your sharp wit is cutting us all over. David Dimbleby is most certainly checking this blog for creative inspiration. In fact, Nouse.co.uk is far more informative and responsive than the BBC blog. Fantastic idea, very well executed.

    Big respect,

    40 Hes Road

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  34. GOP = Grand Old Party, the name of the Republican Party.

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  35. Seriously, I hope Americans see what the fuck they have done.

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  36. PLEASE don’t forget that these are not the actual results! The numbers given tonight aren’t necessarily the final numbers – but it seems rather likely that Obama is the new US President either way.

    Florida + Virginia = should be democratic victories, as I said before… and then even if California provides a “sting in the tail” he will win.

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  37. GOP stands for Grand Old Party, guys. It’s the Republicans.

    Otherwise, good job.

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  38. Obama victory, eta 4:02am.

    In other news the Democrats have won massive gains (aka victories) in everything else and the English football teams failed spectacularly in Europe. It’s still tight in Arizona and Montana but I have the feeling that they’re completely irrelevant :P I am, hmm…. going to call them both Republican but they really will come out close!

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  39. *conceding

    And 4:01… a minute off… but Virginia, Oregon, California, Washington, Hawaii are already called. Florida looks likely. Idaho is McCain. Only news from Arizona, Montana and North Carolina to come through to make me happy.

    And I would love Palin to lose Alaska… but… no.

    So now to predict the final result and guess which policies he will end up failing to go through with. I reckon he’ll flake on his green policies because of big business involvement… and I reckon he’ll flake on Iraq withdrawal. But yeah, congrats to Obama :)

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  40. Bill O’Reilly, if you come on here i have a message for you. Take that you Facicst B*****d!

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  41. “It’s great to see such an overwhelming election win regardless of party. A president with a full backing from his people is in a much better position to solve problems than one in presiding over a more divided nation. One can not help but recognise Obama’s remarkable achievement in winning this election with such overwhelming support.”

    Not really true. He won with a small popular lead and ended up with (my guess is 370) a LOT of electoral votes… more proof that the US electoral system doesn’t work very well. However, frankly, the election came out with the popular winner being the unquestionable President-elect and therefore there won’t be any drawn-out recounts or dodgy dealings. Not to mention that McCain was very gracious in his attitude to Obama. Kudos to him for conceding and making a good quality speech :)

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  42. Fantastic speech. Hope that he continues to talk like this and follows through with his promises.

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  43. I think Bill O’Reilly is an esteemed commentator and far above the mindless name-calling that ‘Ian’ espouses on this wall. Obama has won. Congratulations. We shall be back though. Americans are very quick to recognise their mistakes.

    Incidentally, Ian, how would you define a fascist? It’s a worthwhile debate because O’Reilly clearly is not one. When you say this, do you mean anyone who does not subscribe to your own liberal-left opinion of the world?

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  44. Excellent result by the democrats. As time goes on it sinks in further: with such a majority and mandate it is hard to see anything other than proper change coming for the USA. Anyway, off to do some work and go to lectures, committee meetings and society AGMs before I sleep ;)

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  45. No small amount of sour grapes from Dan Taylor there. In no sense can Obama be considered a mistake; if his margin of victory in the US is considerable, it is nothing compared to how well it will be received in the rest of the world, particularly because of how much more reasonable and sensible his foreign and energy policies are than those of McCain.

    Looking back to the race for the Republican nomination and other members of the Republican party, particularly people like Huckabee, McCain was actually the best of a bad lot. However he really showed his immorality when he thought to forge an attack on Obama by accusing him of “spreading the wealth around”, as though seeking equality and fairness and aiming to provide for the poorest in society is a bad thing. He also failed to do what Colin Powell did and say that even if Mr Obama had been a Muslim, as some of the Republican Party liked to imply, it would be completely irrelevant. Lest we forget, he was also the person who callously sang “Bomb, bomb Iran”. He is not a decent human being and although his concession speech was gracious, as many have noted, I am almost more relieved that John McCain will not be president than I am happy that Barack Obama will be.

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  46. A good result, although not as emphatic as the electoral college system suggests, only 3% more voters actually went for Obama over McCain.

    Concerning also to see 2 (maybe 3 by the end of the count) states constitutionally outlawing gay marriage. Also particularly heartbreaking to see California voting no to naming a sewage plant after George W Bush.

    Speeches were interesting, Obama obviously borrowing from Luther King in the repetitive ‘yes we can’ section, very similar to I have a dream. McCain’s speech showed us too that he still is miles apart from the republican base. If anything a better speech than Obamas on a personal level, although it highlighted everything that sets him above the politics of the GOP. His humility and respect for the opposition and recognition that Obama was a good candidate won’t go down well with the grassroots. The booing of Obamas name (in a crowd of vetted invitees only) shows the mindset between many big players in the republican party.

    The tough job’s only about to begin for Obama. The whole world will now be watching to see if he can translate his promises of ‘hope’ and ‘yes we can’ into anything meaningful in terms of substance. I have sympathy for Dan T’s comments about ‘Obamania’, and the pressure will really start to mount if he doesn’t live up to his promises.

    Overall a positive result for America and the wider world if, and only if, Obama can actually deliver. My fear now is that after such an emphatic and hyped win, he won’t be the president we all want him to be. If anything, expectations will be so high that it will be very difficult to translate momentum in the campaign into immediate political change. He’s inheriting an economy in turmoil and Bush’s foreign policy and an unfinished war on terror. We shouldn’t expect him to solve problems immediately.

    On a slightly different note, it’ll be interesting to see how Bush’s last 2 1/2 months in office are shaped. Will he be quiet, or will he try to get as much done as possible? Or will he even try to repair his legacy as the most disliked president of modern times?

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  47. I second what Camilla said this morning about the uncertainty of our elation.

    The idea of a black Democratic president who embodies change and effuses charisma is wonderful in principle. But if we assess Obama’s triumph with a sense of realpolitik, then we may feel a sense of trepidation. As the BBC elucidated this morning, the real test will be the efficiency of Obama’s legislation and reforms, and whether these approaches will be enough to represent the power of his personal force, and supersede our obsession with identity politics in the midst of an exciting, yet not definitive, electional campaign.

    Things are no definitive. And Obama needs to fulfill American expectation if we want to evade an even scarier prospect of Palin gaining presidency in 2012.

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  48. 04.58
    …possibly the most iconic moment for political development in our lifetime to date.

    04.35
    It hasn’t seemed real until now. The election has been going on for so long, that it just became another form of entertainment. Now that it’s some, some of the Nouse team are finding it emotional. This is real. This is history.

    Come on guys, get over yourselves. Let’s keep a bit of perspective here. The world is not going to change in 4 years because of 1 man. We in Britain are certainly going to see gradual, incremental change in US foreign policy, at very best. US troops are still in Iraq, Afghanistanm rumbles on, and rogue nuclear threats will persist. Besides that, the outcome of this election has infinitesimal significance to Britain.

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  49. Sorry, I meant ‘things are NOW definitive’.

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  50. 8 Nov ’08 at 6:38 pm

    An Exchange Student

    Dear Indifferent:
    Before you say that the world is not going to change in four years because on one man, think about Bush. It only took him four years to get us into Iraq, overthrow Hussein, and then manage to get every single radical Islamic group even more pissed off than before. It only took him four years to give the United States a trillion dollar debt, make us look even more like complete idiots in front of the United Nations, retract almost all of the positive environmental legislation passed under Clinton, remove us from the Kyoto contract, make the United States an example of how a country big enough can get away with torture, and to start an economic downturn which, may I say, your parents may be suffering from even though you’re safely across the pond.

    Four years can make a big difference. Of course, cleaning up a mess takes longer than making one, but these four years are better than nothing.

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  51. http://isobamapresidentyet.com/ has finally been updated. Good stuff.

    Barack Obama has a lot to live up to – his speech got people going, definitely, and what he stands for is brilliant, but if he doesn’t managed to live up to expectations, especially with massive democratic majorities in everywhere else, then there will be great disappointment. I’d even say that Hillary might fancy another go at him if that were the case.

    He has aimed high. If he hits it, it will indeed by an historical moment. If he fails, he will be seen as a failure by the people. He will definitely be a better president than Bush… but we’ll see what happens. Hopefully he’ll keep his policies – but I think his policies on climate change and Iraq, at least, will be softened.

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