Tory leadership battle drags on
Matthew Wignall examines the ongoing Conservative leadership campaign and its possible results
Former Prime Minister Harold Wilson once observed that a week is a long time in politics. If we are to accept this as an unequivocal maxim then New Labour’s tenure in government constitutes something of an aeon. Under Tony Blair’s leadership Labour have achieved three consecutive general election victories, while Blair himself has defeated four Conservative leaders.
The era known as Blairism is characterised not so much by Labour victories, but by the Tories’ failure to take advantage of the controversial actions committed by a succession of Labour governments.
Despite the erosion of Blair’s popularity May’s election saw the Conservatives, under Michael Howard’s leadership, fall 158 seats short of Labour’s total. The fact that many leading Conservatives celebrated the apparent ‘progress’ (a mere 33 seats) speaks volumes.
However, the current leadership battle between David Cameron and David Davis has led to a palpable change in the political climate. As the government stumbles from one crisis to the next (Blunkett’s resignation, twenty-four hour licensing, the smoking ban), the Conservatives are in a position where, after eight years in the political wilderness, they can form a credible opposition.
Cameron’s rise over the last few months firmly indicates the route Conservative MPs want their party to pursue. While Kenneth Clarke may have been the figure that leading Blairites feared most, his elimination in the first ballot suggests a clean break from the past is desired.
David Cameron may be the Conservative Party’s answer to Tony Blair. Like the Prime Minister he enjoyed a comfortable upbringing. He is also a moderniser who intends to drag his party away from its traditional routes towards the centre-ground.
Cameron’s liberal stance is best demonstrated when he suggested that ecstasy should follow cannabis and be downgraded during his head-to-head with Davis on the BBC’s Question Time. This is a man who certainly does not shy away from controversy. Neither is he adverse to entering the world of celebrity, appearing, along with Davis, at the National TV Awards, bringing back memories of Blair’s presence at the 1996 Brit Awards.
He has also been accused of showing very little substance underneath his charismatic surface. He has continually refused to make any firm policy pledges as he does not want to “look ridiculous in five years time”. If his critics are to be believed, this is evidence that there is little beneath the polished veneer.
Davis couldn’t be more different. Despite his working-class roots (he attended a grammar school in Tooting), his policies remain fixed firmly to the right. He is a confirmed Eurosceptic promising a referendum on Britain’s position in Europe. Attacking Cameron’s supposed lack of substance, declaring that people want “what you see is what you get politics”, may prove to be the deciding factor in the outcome of the leadership race.
Rumour currently suggests that Blair will lead Labour until 2008. By this stage voters will have lived through eleven years of Blairism and all the alleged spin that it is tarnished by. Much of the electorate may crave something new, and if Cameron were to become leader the Tories would perhaps be in danger of presenting another Blair.
Perhaps it would be in the Conservative Party’s best interests to offer an alternative. As Davis himself says: “This is absolutely the worst time for the Conservative Party to imitate Tony Blair”. While Thatcher called New Labour her greatest success it seems that Blair has had a similar effect on Cameron.
As both contenders enter the final stages of their campaigns either result is possible. Davis began as a clear favourite but a lacklustre performance at the Party’s annual conference in Blackpool saw him fall behind Cameron in the polls.
However, Davis’ performance on Question Time (3rd November), if not turning the tide in his favour, has certainly helped him gain lost ground with many commentators observing that while neither candidate landed a “knock-out blow” they felt Davis won on “points”.
Cameron may still be the favourite but the nature of this contest so far suggests that there will be many more twists, turns and surprises before the winner is announced on 6th december, which, as I am sure Harold Wilson would agree, is a long time off.
