Sudan faces uncertain but hopeful future
Andreas Masoura examines Sudan’s prospect of sustaining a peaceful future in the aftermath of Africa’s longest civil war
After over two decades of violence seen in Africa’s longest civil war peace may be a realistic prospect for the Sudan. An agreement between the mainly Arab North and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (the Southern rebel group) has led to thousands of the four million refugees begining the long journey home, having fled the violence which saw Arab authorities forcibly remove people from their homes.
At last Sudan’s people have the chance to return to southern Sudan, their homeland, with perhaps the prospect of a future there. However, with the mass movement of people in such a deprived country there are severe complications. Even before the civil war Sudan was (and now even more so) one of the world’s poorest countries, without a stable government or modern economy.
Whatever flimsy infrastructure that was present before the civil war has now surely gone, under the strain of violence and disorder. This has left the Southern Sudanese people facing the prospect of returning to a place without even the basic necessities required to sustain a reasonable quality of life, such as schooling and healthcare.
Additionally, the journey itself is by no means an easy one. It is a long and expensive trip, requiring many to sell their possessions to finance it. Once they set off, there is no prospect of return to the comparatively richer Northern regions if they find even more poverty in Southern Sudan. The main problem, though, is the inevitably large amount of people returning too quickly, too soon. The South’s frail infrastructure would struggle to cope with the impact of hundreds of thousands of people, let alone the several million that were previously displaced from the region.
On one hand the SPLM would proudly see people return and contribute to the regeneration of the area since it signifies progress to their cause, one of an independent Southern Sudan. On the other hand they must face up to the effects of shortages in the South and prevent the inevitable humanitarian disaster that would occur if too many people returned at once.
Even if the eventual return of the Southerner’s proves to be successful in the end, their struggle would not be over, given Southern Sudan’s ambitions to become an independent state.
As part of the peace deal allowing people to return to the South, the SPLM removed its forces from Sudan’s Eastern belt. This in turn has led to Eastern rebel forces replacing them, thus fuelling growing rebellion rather than reducing the violence as the deal intended.
This could cause the fragile peace deal to disintegrate, creating even more chaos. Sudanese government forces in the East, stationed just over the border in neighbouring Eritrea, are bracing themselves for renewed confrontation with rebel forces on the Sudanese side of the border.
There is an ongoing fear that the central government in Khartoum might send militias to the area in a similar way that they did in the West. There, armed Arab levies (the ‘janaweed’) were allowed and encouraged to commit many atrocities, leaving up to 180,000 people dead.
Although the return of Southerners to their home land is a progressive step, Sudan is a country with ongoing problems. There is still violence and conflict in Dharfour, and the prospect of more in the Eastern province that is now being vacated by former Southern inhabitants.
Sudan is at a crossroads, it finally has the prospect of peace, stability and a better future. Yet things in Sudan are never that simple. The peace deal is extremely fragile and could easily fall apart if any more strain is placed upon it.
Andreas Masoura
