Iraqis vote amidst growing bloodshed
Jamie Merrill uncovers the spiralling cycle of violence in Iraq
Simply put things in Iraq are not going according to plan. Now almost 1000 days since the invasion and occupation of Iraq the country is standing on the brink of civil war. The supply of suicide bombers seems endless, the insurgency seems bolder and Iraqi civilian and coalition casualties are mounting. The growing bloodshed in Iraq is in danger of making the forthcoming constitutional referendum seem irrelevant and a mere sideshow to the full-blown conflict that looms over Iraq’s future.
For Iraqi’s the last 3 months have been hot, long and extremely bloody. This summer has brought us some of the most deadly attacks yet seen in Iraq. The Independent’s Robert Frisk discovered 1100 civilian bodies came into Baghdad’s main mortuary in August alone. The pre-war figure was just 200. All suffered violent deaths either from bomb attacks, mortar attakcs or executions.
September was little better with 1000 pilgrims trampled to death when insurgents panicked a Shia crowd into a stampede on a Baghdad bridge. There were 22 car or suicide bombings in one week alone and in 2 days in the middle of the month 211 civilians died in suicide bombings or mortar attacks.
At the same time American deaths are approaching 2000 whilst British casualties near 100. The rate and sophistication of insurgent attacks has been steadily increasing causing a rise in civilian casualties.
Some studies into the level of civilian casualties have cited figures as high as 100,000 that however was published a year ago. However other studies have quoted figures from 10,000 to over 37.000. Whilst it is unclear how many civilians have died it is clear that, as the insurgency grows bolder and the coalition presence remains casualties are set to rise.
Crucial questions need to be addressed now if stability is to be achieved in Iraq. Who are the insurgents and why is the democratic process failing?
The American and coalition forces argue that the majority of the insurgents are radical Sunni Muslims, many of them foreign who are seeking to derail the political process and create a fundamentalist Muslim state. Hence the coalition presence is crucial in Iraq to combat this radical insurgency and build democracy in Iraq.
However whilst there are undoubtedly foreign fighters in Iraq perpetuating horrific attacks the true picture of the insurgency is far more complex. Reports suggest that the radical terrorist network of Abu al-Zarqawi in fact makes up at most 10% of the insurgency. The insurgency is a much more shadowy affair, its made of nationalist resistance fighters, Shiite militias, ex-Baathists and Sunni militias as well as radical foreign fighters.
In the face of this growing ethnic bloodshed and violence Iraq is due to vote on a new constitution this week. Whilst this constitution is Iraq’s best hope for united democratic future it could also plunge Iraq into civil war.
There are 2 major problems with the constitution that will stoke violence rather than quell it. Firstly the whole political process does not include the Sunni minority who make up the majority of the insurgency. The proposed constitution fails to guarantee minority rights for the Sunni’s and will not include them in the political programme. Iraq’s other ethnic groups are calling for a federal framework that will totally exclude the Sunni from power. This can only push more Sunni into the waiting arms of the insurgents.
Secondly as framework for government the proposed constitution has dangerous contradictions. While article 2 makes Islam the state religion and source of all law, article 18 calls for a fully independent and powerful judiciary. This contradiction is surely a recipe for escalating violence.
The Iraqi government though at this crucial time faces a crisis of legitimacy. To very many Iraqi people however the Iraqi government is just a puppet of the American forces. The Iraqi government wil never be seen as legitiamte when it threatens its enemies with someone else’s gun. Iraq needs a stable central government that can unite all the ethnic and religious groups in Iraq. This seems increasingly unlikey as the new constitution will create more problems than it will solve.
Jamie Merrill
