Out of touch, under pressure
Tony Blair seems to be turning himself into politics’ most famous masochist. Fresh from declaring war on Iraq in the face of world opinion, he embarked on a campaign to introduce top up fees in the face of opposition from many previously loyal Labour MP’s, and much of the public. An ICM opinion poll published by the Guardian showed that an initial 59% of people asked opposed fees, and of the 75% who could correctly identify what top-up fees were, as opposed to up front fees or a graduate tax, 59% disapproved and only 30% approved.
Even though Blair managed to apologise to Ken Livingstone and allowed him to return to the Labour Party he has yet to apologise for going to war on what has turned out to be a patently false premise. Weapons of Mass Destruction have not been found in Iraq and the US government have now disbanded the Iraq Survey Group who were charged with finding them.
Back in November Blair afforded George Bush the first state visit of a US President since Woodrow Wilson in 1918. Again this was met with massive opposition not only amongst the public but many former allies within the Labour Party.
To understand the crises that Blair increasingly finds himself in it is necessary to go back to the 1997 General Election. The election of the Labour government was essentially a sign from the public for a more compassionate and less corrupt style of governance. The recession of the early 1990s, the endless privatisation of public utilities, the scandals of Tory ministers had taken the shine off the Tory successes of the 1980s. Within the Labour Party itself, Tony Blair and his small coterie of New Labour “hardheads” managed to win the support of the majority of MP’s and party members who held basic centre-left social democratic ideas with the promise of power after eighteen years. In doing this Blair managed to isolate the left within the party and the affiliated trade unions.
In essence what we are seeing now, after seven years in office, is the unravelling of this setup. Contrary to his claims, Blair may well be the most ideologically driven Labour Prime Minister in history, former Labour leaders were at least formally committed to the “tripartite” system of negotiations between government, employers and unions. To moderate social democrats and liberals in Europe, Blair is viewed as part of what is called the “B-A-B axis” along with Aznar of Spain and Berlusconi of Italy, in pushing right-wing and pro-war policies.
All this is creating discontent amongst the British public who, according to the latest British Social Attitudes survey, “[retain] a grounded – and contradictory – social democratic consciousness.” The discontent is expressed in a number of ways: the mass movement against the war, the election of left-wing trade union l, the number of people in surveys who oppose domestic polices such as foundation hospitals and fees.
It is this feeling of losing touch with the public which has caused consensus within in the Labour Party to break down. The parliamentary revolt against top-up fees was not spearheaded by the left, but by former “moderate” Labour ministers. This was a revolt based in part on the fact that Tony Blair seems to be losing his trump card: that he is a guarantee of success.
The litmus test for the Blair government will be on “Super Thursday” in June when the elections for the Greater London Assembly, the European Parliament, and local councils will be held. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats will attempt to capitalise on whatever weakness the government displays. The Liberals will likely talk left for the urban seats whilst challenging on a more right wing basis in the rural areas.
A darker prospect is the possible success of the BNP. The left are also mounting a challenge, a new coalition involving George Galloway, the Socialist Alliance and other figures from the anti-war movement is in the process of formation. It will certainly be a date for the diary in terms of the future of politics in Britain.
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