Blair on the Rocks
Media hyperbole has elevated the Hutton Inquiry to an absurd status. Now it’s perceived as an analysis of the government’s wider legitimacy, which is fundamentally wrong. Hutton’s findings may well produce some biting criticisms of Downing Street’s inner-workings and the Ministry of Defence’s personnel procedures. Beyond this, the inquiry has done exactly what the government wanted it to do, merely serving to divert public attention away from the real situation in Iraq.
The inquiry is little more than a fanfare of illustrious barristers pumping up lucrative bills, many of which will be sapped from the public purse. It’s simply more about personalities than it is politics. The political, and moral, failures of the government in going to war have been conveniently sidestepped. The death of Dr David Kelly was of course a harrowing and saddening consequence of this decision. The Ministry of Defence’s response to the Kelly–Gilligan episode could well have been more sensitive. But let’s not forget why all this is happening. This charade is all about the so-called dodgy dossier into Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction programme, or lack thereof.
The fact is that no weapons of mass destruction have been located in Iraq despite the fact that the US-UK coalition have had free-run of the country that they are occupying for almost five months. The fact that no weapons of mass destruction have been found provides a chilling verdict on Blair’s decision to go to war, a damning intictment of his government.
Iraq is under a brutal military occupation with a social infrastructure, including water systems and medical facilities, that has been decimated. Iraqi protesters demonstrating against the US-UK occupation are locked up or shot by the occupying forces. There is little sign of the serious steps to creating a democratic system of governance in Iraq that has been repeatedly promised by the Bush–Blair axis. The UN and the global aid agencies cannot leave Iraq fast enough with very real concerns over their security escalating by the day and illustrated most pointedly by the death of the UN’s special representative to Iraq, Sergio Vieira de Mello in August.
This reality is a disgrace. But with all the commotion surrounding the almost pointless Hutton Inquiry, the day-to-day outrage in Iraq has been banished from the mainstream media agenda. Hutton’s conclusions are rather predictable. The government, the Ministry of Defence and Andrew Gilligan and the BBC will all be criticised. Andrew Gilligan and Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon will probably lose their jobs.
So what? The fact remains that Geoff Hoon should lose his job regardless. Not because an official under his charge was driven to suicide, but because Hoon has been responsible, on a daily basis, for executing the debacle in Iraq.
Hoon’s imminent departure from the Cabinet will be a further blow to Blair. This summer has seen some of his most trusted colleagues leave government. Alan Milburn, a staunch Blairite, departed to lead a ‘normal life’. Alistair Campbell has of course resigned. His exit from Number Ten will leave a void that cannot be filled; this is the biggest blow to Blair. Having partnered him for the entirety of his senior political career, the Prime Minister will undoubtedly feel isolated without his most trusted companion. This isolation will be felt most not in the aftermath of Hutton and its probable findings but as the parliamentary programme resumes.
Blair will be faced with a series of back-bench revolts. Issues such as top-up fees and foundation hospitals should see many back-benches revolt against the extension of Thatcherism into Labour’s programme. Of course, such revolts will make news. But what is more notable is the characters who could lead these revolts.
Former Health Secretary Frank Dobson has already squared up to Blair over foundation hospitals. Robin Cook has continually challenged the Prime Minister over Iraq, recently speaking of his regret at not doing more to avert the government from war. Clare Short has called for Blair to resign, though the cowardly timing of her resignation rightly taints her stance. Former transport minister Glenda Jackson is also vocal in her rejection Blair’s policy. These former ministers and the usual suspects on Labour’s left are queuing up to lead revolts to begin to dislodge Blair from the helm.
The autumn will inevitably be dominated by the publication of Hutton’s findings. Undoubtedly, they will rock the establishment but in the wider picture it can only form part of a wider challenge to the Prime Minister’s legitimacy; the prospect of Blair leaving Number 10 is still a delusion that many will have to live with for some time yet.
However, Blair’s protection has always been provided by the clinical abilities of Alistair Campbell. He will not be around in the autumn. Campbell’s political judgement is assumed to be infallible. If anyone knows the right time to leave a sinking ship he does. So the question remains: has he left the Prime Minister swimming or heading for a Titanical finale?
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