Argentina Chooses Political Destiny
Argentinians went to the polls at the end of last month amidst continuing economic chaos that has remained since the initial dramatic collapse at the end of 2001. That crisis triggered an angry backlash across the country. Thousands of people took to the streets to show their contempt for the political leaders who had presided over a rapidly deteriorating economy that had left millions unemployed and bank accounts frozen in an attempt to halt the decline.
Since then President Eduardo Duhalde has had moderate success in stabilizing what was an almost unmanageable situation. The economy contracted 10.9% in 2002 following the necessary devaluation of the peso and the record debt default, but gross domestic product grew significantly in February on the back of a jump in exports and a manufacturing resurgence. Tax collections are up, the Argentine peso is gaining strength and the government's economic team is meeting the fiscal goals set out in January's agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
Unfortunately these improvements have not yet been reflected with benefits for the majority of the population. Unemployment is still running at nearly eighteen percent and more than half of the population live in poverty. Clearly then, a lot is at stake.
The result of the ballot left no one candidate with a sufficient majority to win outright. Instead, the two men with the highest percentage of the vote, Carlos Menem and Nestor Kirchner, now face a run-off to decide who will have the dubious honour of being named president and trying to get a grip of the economy and drag Argentina out of the mire. Both candidates are from the Peronist party that has dominated Argentina’s political landscape for years but that does not mean that the voters must just choose between two identical politicians.
Far from it. Carlos Menem ruled Argentina from 1988-99 and is blamed by many Argentinians for the current troubles due to his whole-hearted adoption of free-market neoliberal reforms and the enormous debt that ballooned under his presidency and contributed to the subsequent catastrophes. Indeed, nearly two-thirds of the electorate now claim that they would never vote for Menem for these reasons as well as because of the corruption allegations levelled against him. This has led most observers to believe that the "anti-Menem" vote could well swing the run-off in favour of Mr Kirchner.
Nestor Kirchner, governor of the oil-producing province of Santa Cruz, is more centre-left in his rhetoric than Menem, who promises a return to the same neoliberal policies that most believe caused the current crisis. Kirchner has pledged to first protect domestic industries and jobs and to take a tough line in negotiating with the IMF on aid packages and when to start repaying the defaulted debt. Menem has stated that he will pay the debt in full and would act with force against the thousands of protestors that still remain from the "Argentinazo" movement that emerged 16 months ago and continues to resist the policies that have so-far failed to alleviate the country’s ills.
The results of the first round of the election have indicated the failure of this movement to indicate to the population that it offers a way out of the poverty and misery. Instead, on the day of the run-off on May 18th, Argentinians will face the choice between the passionately neoliberal, corruption-tainted Menem or the slightly more protection-minded Kirchner.
Neither would guarantee a sure-fire solution to the crisis but, in the context of the past failures of free-marketeering and the volatile global situation, Mr Kirchner’s claim that he will not be pushed around by the IMF and the forces of foreign capital makes him the best hope for the beleaguered people of Latin America’s second largest nation.
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